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March 2026 was worse than 97% of months in the last 3 decades
The Nifty 500 fell 11.4% in March 2026, triggered by the US-Israel attack on Iran. Out of 374 months since January 1995, only 13 have been this bad or worse. That’s roughly once every 29 months. Your...
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The Iran War: What we know, what we don’t, and what we’re doing about it
Starting with the right question The natural instinct right now is to ask: when does this war end? Or: where does oil go from here? Or: should I be buying this dip or selling everything? We think...
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Oil Shocks and Indian Stocks
24 episodes, 30 years of Nifty data, one question: do oil spikes actually predict worse equity returns? Since the Iran strikes began, Brent went from $70, touched $119 intraday on March 9, and is...
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The Returns You Keep
The advice to “stay invested” is easy to give. It’s also suspiciously convenient when it comes from a fund manager who benefits when you don’t leave. So we tested it. Eighteen Flexi Cap funds. Over a...
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The Most Misleading Chart in Finance?
You have seen this chart or some version of it. ₹1 lakh invested the Nifty 500 since 1995 became ₹37 lakhs. Miss the 10 best days, and you are left with ₹17 lakhs. Miss 30, and a 12.4% CAGR shrivels...
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The Valuation Mirage: Why P/E Doesn’t Predict Returns Like You Think
This post is a detailed follow-up to this previous short post: The Price-Earnings Multiple tells you almost nothing about next years returns. The questions and comments I got were along the lines of...
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The Price-Earnings Multiple (P/E) tells you almost nothing about next year’s...
I ran the numbers on Nifty 500 over 26 calendar years. Starting P/E explains just 14.5% of annual return variance, i.e. 86% of the returns is not explained by Price-Earnings The correlation is -0.38,...
View ArticleThe January Gym and the January Portfolio
How Structure Beats Willpower: In Fitness and In Wealth The gym empties by February. This is almost universally understood, the abandoned treadmill is a cultural punchline at this point. Fitness app...
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[Article in Mint] The busiest year ends with 344 IPOs, but half the listings...
My article in Mint’s print edition on how IPOs have done this year. TLDR; Not as well as you’d think. The post [Article in Mint] The busiest year ends with 344 IPOs, but half the listings are...
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Most Stocks Lose to “Average”
Why beating the index is harder than it looks—and what actually helps You’ve done your homework. You’ve read the annual reports, tracked quarterly results, avoided the obvious traps. Your portfolio...
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On NDTV-Profit discussing mid-small cap valuations, turnaround sectors and Gold
Had a detailed chat about the current state of markets, valuations and Gold with the folks at NDTV Profit Despite the 15-20% correction since October, why markets are still expensive, especially the...
View ArticleMint Article: Mind over market: 7 habits of investors who thrive during...
This article was first published in Mint. Market corrections are an inevitable part of the investing journey, but they don’t have to derail long-term financial goals. While it’s natural to feel...
View ArticleOn CNBC-TV18 discussing how large IPOs have historically performed in India
50% of IPOs have beaten benchmark returns but Larger IPOs have disappointed w.r.t. long term returns’ says Anoop Vijaykumar, Investments & Head of Research, Capitalmind Financial Services. Tells...
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Silver’s Surge, Gold’s Hedge: Strengthening Your Equity Portfolio with...
This article was first published on capitalmind.in We examine over two decades of gold and silver returns alongside the Nifty to determine whether these precious metals have a place in a long-term...
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Investing in mega IPOs: What the Data Shows
The Hyundai IPO, open for subscription from October 15th to 17th 2024, is the largest-ever IPO in Indian Public Markets. At an issue size of ₹27k Crores, it is 35% larger than the previous largest...
View ArticleThe Keynesian Beauty Contest: Why expert forecasts often miss the mark
This article is reproduced from our article in The Economic Times We are constantly bombarded with expert forecasts about the stock market and individual companies that are often off the mark. Open...
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Decoding Long-Term Nifty Returns: The Power of Time Horizons
For investors in the Indian stock market, understanding the dynamics of returns across different time horizons is the key to maximizing gains while minimizing regret. A deep dive into the Nifty...
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Inside Japan’s 1980s Asset Price Bubble: The Lost Decades
This article was first published on capitalmind.in On February 22 this year, the Nikkei, Japan’s benchmark equity index, crossed 38,915 and closed at a lifetime high of 39,098. With most major global...
View ArticleMoney does buy happiness but only if you spend it right
This post was first published on capitalmind.in “It is not surprising when wealthy people who know nothing about wine end up with cellars that aren’t much better stocked than their neighbours, and it...
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The Enduring Myth of Great Companies
This post was first published on capitalmind.in I remember the precise moment I had my first doubts about books on management success. In one of my earliest jobs, as a fresh management consulting...
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