When I started investing in equities, I used to be in awe of equity research reports. Immaculately formatted 5-page documents with their glossy charts and tables of financial projections followed by a confident Buy / Sell / Hold recommendation based on a precise target price. I figured those target prices were arrived at by hardcore sector experts working with proprietary excel models of such complexity they would probably crash any computer with conventional specifications. That awe lasted until I realized the “models” in use might as well have been random number generators due to their sensitivity to assumptions about an unknowable
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